2018-01-16 | Editor : et_editor 1390 pageviews
PriceTrend: Prices of Mono PV Cell and Modules Are Pressed Down Severely; Downstream Market Prices Becomes Unstable
Tier-one manufacturers received enough orders for January. However, because the demand of the China market tended to be weak, tier-two or –three manufacturers who target China market experienced decreasing amount of orders. Meanwhile, tier-one manufacturers' out-sourcing orders fell in the same time. Thus, market sentiment was down. In particular, prices of PV cell and module were more unstable. Because mid- and small-sized manufactures dumped the inventory to exchange for cash at the end of 2017, the average price was pressed down.
This week, the average spot price of polysilicon slightly rose for two main reasons below. First, the sources of the raw material for polysilicon were in shortage in the international community. For example, USA's Wacker Chemie AG polysilicon factory still had no raw materials. Next, traders dare not purchase hastily because in the near future, price of polysilicon raw material might go down.
Because the outlook of demand in the downstream market kept on being weak, polysilicon price might go down at the second half of January 2018. Currently, polysilicon is sold out (in January). However, the demand of domestic market in China is predicted to stay weak at least until the end of Chinese New Year, and downstream multi-si wafer price is still moving down. Therefore, some polysilicon prices might begin to fall at the beginning of February.
This week, price of polysilicon for multi-si products ranged from RMB 147~154/kg, and price of polysilicon for mono-si products ranged from RMB 153~158/kg. In the non-China region, polysilicon price was USD 15~19/kg.
Because tier-one module houses' orders are still enough, mono- and multi-si wafer prices of tier-one wafer foundries remained unchanged. However, some small size si wafer foundries began to sell wafer in a lower prices. For instance, some prices of mono-si wafer were below RMB 5/pc, and some prices of multi-si wafer were lower than RMB 4.2/pc. They are projected to influence the market sentiment of the second half of January. During this week, tier-one and –two mono-si wafer prices were RMB 5.1~5.4/pc. Diamond wire cut multi-si wafer's prices were RMB 4.45~4.6/pc.
On the one hand, mono-si and multi-si PV cells were against each other in a price war. For example, diamond wire cut multi-si PV cell price (RMB 1.65/W) was too high to reach a deal. The mainstream mono si PV cell price was even lower than the lows of diamond wire cut multi-si PV cell price.
On the other hand, because the demand of domestic market in China was sluggish, PV cell prices this week were unstable. This week diamond wire cut multi-si PV cell price ranged from RMB 1.63~1.65/W. Mono-si PV cell ranged from RMB 1.62~1.66/W.
This week module prices in the market were also unstable. Mono-si PV modules were pressed more to lower prices, so the price gap between mono-si and multi-si PV modules was quickly shrinking. Some multi-si modules' prices even became higher than mono-si modules' prices. This week, multi-si module prices ranged from RMB 2.68~2.78/W. Mono-si module prices ranged from RMB 2.68~2.85/W. The severe price war made price range apparently broaden and made price distribution become unstable.
Moreover, the major demand in 1Q18 is the India market. India's Directorate General of Safeguards (DGS) proposed to impose a 70% safeguard duty on solar power equipment for 200 days. It will require further review by the India authority, but potential risks might lead India's demand of China's capacity to shift to other countries.