After the U.S. imposed punitive tariffs on Chinese PV cells, EU's anti-dumping investigation on Chinese PV modules in 2013 didn't come up with any significant conclusion. Due to China's cell order transfer, Taiwanese cell manufacturers experienced strong demand during the PV industry downturn. However, the U.S. subsidiary of Germany-based SolarWorld AG once again filed petitions for the imposition of anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese PV modules exported to the US. This act became a key driving force that impacted the recent price uptrend. What will happen next in this US-China trade war will no doubt become the issue that most concerns the green energy sector this year.
Time Table of the US-China Trade War
December 30, 2013 It’s reported that the U.S. may restart a new anti-dumping and countervailing investigation against Taiwanese manufacturers. Chinese PV Industry Pleads Against the “Anti-Dumping and Countervailing” Policy: CCCME
January 16, 2014 EnergyTrend indicated “the new investigation is likely to be filed release.”
January 22, 2014 The ITC* Public Hearing:
ITC held a hearing to testify if the industrial damage is plausible to decide whether file the case or not.
TPVIA** planned to plead.
Taiwanese Manufacturers to Testify on Anti-Dumping and Countervailing Public Hearing Held by the US
January 23, 2014 The U.S. DOC*** announced the investigating on the anti-dumping and countervailing duties (anti-dumping against Taiwan) The dumping rate being accused: Taiwan, 75.68%; China, 165.04%
January 24, 2014 ITC announced the case to be filed
February 06, 2014 TPVIA asked help from Taiwan government
February 14, 2014 ITC to announce the conclusion of investigating Affirmative. DOC to take over to set duties
EnergyTrend: ITC Files the Case, Taiwanese Manufacturers Need to React Carefully and Accurately
March 25, 2014 DoC Named Motech and Gintech as respondents of Taiwanese manufacturers
June 03, 2014 DOC to announce the preliminary ruling on countervailing duties against China SolarWorld Applauds DOC’s Decision on Imports of Subsidized Chinese Solar Products
July 25, 2014 DOC's preliminary ruling of Anti-dumping duties in Taiwan and China Taiwanese PV Makers to Confront Serious Challenges as Taiwan and China Faces Similar Preliminary Anti-Dumping Tax Rates
August 25, 2014 Return Questionnaires
December 8, 2014 Hearing Report
December 17, 2014 DOC's final ruling Tariffs Rise for China, Drop for Taiwan, Solar Makers Seek US Export Channels
January 2, 2015 Review of 2012’s AD duties Turn-up for Chinese Solar Manufacturers due to Reversal on 2012 Anti-dumping and Countervailing Duty
January 30, 2015 End

*International Trade Commission (ITC)
**Taiwan Photovoltaic Industry Association (TPVIA)
***Department of Commerce (DoC)
2014 PV Market Forecast
US market demand Global Capacity Global Capacities excluded China and Taiwan
Cell 6GW 59.4GW 23.3GW
Module 6GW 49.8GW 21.1GW

Source: EnergyTrend PV Gold Report
USA's Anti-Dumping Investigation May affect Taiwanese Cell Manufacturers
SolarWorld once again requested anti-dumping and countervailing investigation against Chinese modules shipped to USA. This time, the investigation will include module with third-party solar cells. EnergyTrend indicates that the total amount of PV installation was 4.3GW in 2013, in which 90% (around 3GW) of modules were from China. Although it cost US$0.7/watt for Chinese modules shipped to USA, the cost was very close to the minimum price set between EU-China. However, due to the Chinese government's great support towards the PV industry these years, Chinese manufacturers can sell relatively low-priced products as they are under deficit . It's projected that US has a moderate chance of establishing the case
PV Spot Price Continues to Increase in February, Anti-Dumping and Countervailing Result to be Announced in March
EnergyTrend indicates that orders haven't been cut substantially after China-USA solar trade war took place. ITC estimates to announce the result by the end of February. If the case is established, the US Department of Commerce (DoC) will continue to investigate regarding subsidy and product dumping. EnergyTrend projects that it's not going to affect Taiwanese manufacturers until this March.
Taiwan's PV Cell Shipment Reached 8.3GW in 2013 and Will Surpass 10GW in 2014
Since Taiwan's first-tier cell manufacturers achieved full-production status in 2H13 and second-tier manufacturers increased cell shipment, total cell shipment in Taiwan reached a new high in 2013. EnergyTrend indicates that the annual shipment growth rate was 42% in 2013 for Taiwan's cell manufacturers, with total shipment exceeding 8.3GW. As for individual Taiwanese manufacturers, shipment of Motech, Neo Solar Power, and Gintech all surpassed 1GW. NSP didn't count DelSolar's shipment in until they acquired DelSolar in June, 2013.Thus, Motech was still the Taiwanese cell manufacturer with the largest shipment in 2013. But it's possible to be replaced by NSP in 2014. Overall, the total shipment for the top three manufacturers is likely to represent around 55% of the total shipment in Taiwan
Relevant Reports of the PV Industry >> More Relevant Reports
US to Restart Investigating PV Products Dumped from China, and Taiwan Involved
The US Department of Commerce announced on January 23rd that the court will start the second investigation against PV products imported from China. This new investigation, which follows the first one launched in November 2011, includes the anti-dumping and countervailing issue against China and anti-dumping issue against PV products made in Taiwan.
Eversol Predicts High-Efficiency Product Demand to Boost in 2014
PV demand has been boosting since 4Q13, and EnergyTrend predicts that global PV system installation may reach 42GW in 2014. Although the U.S. court has started the anti-dumping and countervailing investigation towards Taiwanese PV cell makers, it doesn't necessarily impact Taiwanese wafer manufacturers, stated Eversol Company.If the case were not established, Taiwanese PV cell makers can still sell their products to mainland China and USA as they did before.
Chinese PV Manufacturers Hope to "Minimize the Scale" in the New US-China Trade War
To respond to the U.S. Department of Commerce's new investigation on the anti-dumping and countervailing issue against PV products imported from China to the U.S., several Chinese PV manufacturers has set their first mission as "to minimize products to be involved in."

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