2018-08-16 | Editor : Annie Chueh 1325 pageviews
Price Trend: Upstream Demand Tends to Be Conservative, While Downstream International Market Prices Fluctuate Significantly
Polysilicon and si-wafer manufacturers continued to respond to slowing demand this week with capacity control. The overall price is now balanced by limited supply and the demand side’s inventory preparations. Changes in the downstream overseas markets are still influenced by the safeguard duty in India and the impending expiry of the European MIP, and Taiwan’s capacity has been replaced by the flexibility of capacity in Southeast Asia, which has led to an unexpected rise in prices in the region. As these developments have all been influenced by the spread of market information, the outlook of the market’s supply and demand will still depend on the flexible distribution of each manufacturer.
This week, there have been polysilicon orders signed to the end of August in China, but the overall situation was still limited by capacity allocation. So far, the overhaul plan has affected 14,000-15,000 tons of capacity, including two overseas manufacturers, so the polysilicon supply in August is expected to remain tight. Yet, due to the unreleased demand, the price roughly remained stable. So far, the price of multi-si material in China has reached RMB 83-90/KG, and the price of mono-si material has slightly reduced to RMB 90-98/KG, making the price difference between mono-si and multi-si become small. Overseas multi-si material price has stabilized at above US$10.3/KG.
Owing to the balanced supply and demand and the lack of excessive issue on the market, si-wafer price this week was flat. So far, the reasonable prices of mono-si and multi-si wafer remained at RMB 3.15-3.26/Pcand RMB 2.40-2.45/Pc, respectively. Black silicon product price also maintained at RMB 2.80/Pc. Prices on the overseas market became unchanged. Prices of mono-si and multi-si wafer were US$0.400-0.425/Pcand US$0.311-0.375/Pc. Black wafer price was US$0.375/Pc.
This week, the PV cell trading market began to be affected by the anticipations of fluctuations in overseas markets such as India and Europe, with significant price movements and mixed movements in individual areas.
China’s domestic market demand slowed down. Small- and medium-sized manufacturers suspended the offer of general mono-si PV cell, squeezing the price of first-tier manufacturers. So far, China’s general mono-si PV cell price has decreased to RMB 1.04-1.10/W, and high-efficiency mono-si price has reached RMB 1.13-1.20/W. Affected by the sluggish market condition, general multi-si PV cell price has declined to RMB 0.93-1.03/W.
The decline in supply chain has spread to overseas markets. This week, international general mono-si PVcell price lowered to US$0.127-0.140/W, and high-efficiency mono-si price was revised to US$0.167-0.170/W. Due to market support, multi-si PV cell price can maintain at US$0.128-0.158/W.
Domestic demand in China has not picked up, and many module manufacturers have moved overseas to balance supply and demand through global demand, making price fluctuation become steady. Yet, because of the cacophony on the international market, the balance isn’t expected to last long.
So far, general multi-si module (270-275W) price in China has maintained at RMB 1.80-2.00/W, and high-efficiency multi-si (280-285W) price has stabilized at RMB 1.85-2.15/W. Prices of general mono-si (290-295W) and high-efficiency mono-si (300-305W) reduced to RMB 1.90-2.20/W and RMB 2.10-2.25/W. It is worth noting that the transaction prices of general mono-si and high-efficiency multi-si module overlapped obviously, which shows that these products have a great deal of bargaining space in the market.
There were mixed movements in each region on the overseas market. Yet, the capacity in Southeast Asia has replaced the capacity in Taiwan because there were no trade barriers to India and Europe. Thus, the price increased. General multi-si module price was US$0.231-0.285/W, but Southeast Asia-based general multi-si module price slightly grew to US$0.280/W. International high-efficiency multi-si module price was US$0.247-0.288/W, but Southeast Asia-based price slightly increased to US$0.285/W. Prices of general mono-si and high-efficiency mono-si module were unchanged, but their price ranges narrowed to US$0.251-0.402/W and US$0.279-0.42/W.