2018-06-14 | Editor : Annie Chueh 1493 pageviews
630 Demand Will Come to an End, Leading to Stagnant Market Activity in Q3: Price Trend
After the release of China’s “531” new policies, the industry faced a lot of difficulties. The pressures faced by dealers have become higher. Although enterprises jointly voiced their concerns, the country’s instruction to the development trend of solar energy industry still couldn’t be reversed. The status of the industry this month was weak. Besides the low season of Q3, the “ice age” of the solar energy industry is just around the corner.
This week, there were many sales in the polysilicon market. A lot of manufacturers were willing to sell at cost price as the bottom line, but the trading willingness on the downstream was still quite weak. On the market, there was RMB 80/kg of multi-si material from small manufacturers, but the transaction volume wasn’t large. The main transaction price was still above RMB 85/kg. China’s transaction price of mono-si material could still be maintained at above RMB 115/kg. Yet, the price of multi-si material ranges from RMB 85-110/kg, which is quite volatile.
The overseas multi-si material should be focusing on long term orders, and the change of price should be small. However, due to the impact of price comparison effect in China, some temporary orders followed, causing the fluctuation of quoted price. So far, there has been overseas manufacturer only offering quoted price of mono-si material. In terms of multi-si material, the quoted price has adopted a conservative attitude toward the market status.
This week, only the first-tier manufacturers of mono-si wafer could maintain the stability of supply, demand and price. Prices of second- and third-tier manufacturers have started to loosen. Overall, mono-si wafer price hasn’t been influenced. Yet, owing to the epilogue of 630 installation rush and the upcoming low season of Q3, there will be more manufacturers beginning to sell with lower prices in the coming weeks.
Multi-si wafer price continued to decline in the face of weak demand. The inventory level of leading manufacturers has surpassed 300 million; even though the reduction of more than 50% will take a lot of time to lower inventory, the low season will further slow down the pace of inventory destocking. Currently, the prices of the first-tier manufacturers are RMB 2.40-2.55/Pc, followed by an estimate of RMB 2.3/Pc, which is an acceptable bottom line.
This week, because of the unstable market status, the price of high-efficiency PV cell became loose. Even though some demands of high-efficiency products are expected to appear in Q3 and Q4, the change of policy still resulted in the instability on the market.
The price of multi-si PV cell dropped due to weak demand. There was a standoff between supply and demand with positive offers from sellers but continued wait-and-see from buyers. If there is no urgency to purchase, such an atmosphere will become a buyer’s market. On the other hand, general mono-si PV cell price remained at RMB 1.50/W, and general multi-si PV cell price has fallen below RMB 1.0/W.
With the end of 630 demand, upstream will gradually cut production to control the level of inventory, and some PV cell plants are expected to start planning to reduce or stop the production.
This week the module market was close to last week to deliver the existing orders, and the new orders were very few, and the main reason was that the new policy caused high uncertainty to subsequent orders. Many system vendors changed the transaction volume or trading time. The lowest price of the general multi-si module has reached RMB 2.00/W. The general mono-si module price has been RMB 2.60/W. The price of high-efficiency multi-si module was roughly flat, mainly because of the small transaction volume.