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Global share of green power may top 50% by 2050, thanks to technological progress and cost reduction of energy storage of PV cells, which minimizes the effect of weather on PV and wind power, greatly boosting grid stability, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).
In its recently released report "New Energy Outlook 2018," BNEF points out that cost of lithium battery has plunged by 80% since 2010 and is expected to drop further, alongside the brisk development of electric-car technology, which will affect the energy mix on the world market greatly.
Seb Henbest, in charge of the areas of Europe, the Middle East, and Africa at BNEF and main author of the report, points out that accumulated global investments in energy-storage systems will top US$548 billion by 2050, two thirds of which in grid energy-storage systems and the remainder in small energy-storage devices of households and enterprises.
Henbest notes that the development of PV-cell energy storage systems facilitates precision control of the transmission and distribution of PV and wind power, whose supply would continue even during windless or cloudy days, making it possible for renewable energy to substitute for thermal power and nuclear power.
The report shows that investments in new power plants worldwide will reach US$11.5 trillion during 2018-2050, including US$8.4 trillion in wind power and PV power ant UT$1.5 trillion in other clean power with zero CO2 emission, such as hydraulic power and nuclear power.
Thanks to the massive investments, global PV power capacities will expand 17-fold and that of wind power sixfold. BNEF predicts that average power generation cost, or levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), of PV power stations will plummet by 71% by 2050 and that of onshore wind farms by 58%, on top of drops of 77% and 41%, respectively, during 2009-2018.
The renewable-energy craze will catch on worldwide, boosting the share of green power to 87% in Europe, 55% in the U.S., 62% in China, and 75% in India b y 2050.
Decline of coal-fired thermal power?
Elena Giannakopoulou, in charge of energy economy at BNEF, states that in the long run, coal-fired thermal power will be the major loser, as renewable energy will play a central role in the global power structure, thanks to its cost reduction and development of energy-storage technology, plus retention of significant share by natural gas-fired thermal power, due to its flexibility in power generation. Share of coal-fired thermal power will plunge to 11% by 2050, down from 38% now..
According to the report, carbon footprint of power will peak in 2027, at a level 2% higher than that of 2017, before dropping by 38% by 2050. Despite the impressive figure, the existing pace in the reduction of CO2 emission is still insufficient for the world to attain the UN goal of capping greenhouse-gas emission at 450 ppm by the end of the 21st century, in order to keep the increase of global temperature under 2 degrees Celsius.
(Written by Daisy Chuang; Image: BNEF）