PV market momentum in China remains weak, while PV demands in markets such as USA, Japan, Europe and India are also flat. PV order volumes are expected to rise only when the Chinese market restarts booking products for large-scale PV projects and solar bids in the fourth quarter. However, the PV quotes will raise only after tier-one PV vendors deplete their inventory. Adding that the price downturn through the third quarter of 2016 was very severe, it is pessimistic to see a price rebound through October.
Quotes for polysilicon in several regions have started to decline as EnergyTrend’s expectation, and the situation will negatively impact price trend of wafers. Polysilicon is the very last sector that will suffer from market decline across the whole PV value chain, so the price is expected to decrease drastically in the future and will be unlikely to rebound until the end of 2016.
Many tier-one and tier-two multi-si wafer vendors slightly reduced their utilization rates during August, resulting in rise of inventory and price decrease in the beginning of September. The low utilization rates of PV cell vendors have caused sudden plummet in wafer trading volume, which in turn led to the steep price declines for this week. Wafer price in China have fallen from RMB 4.7~4.9/pc last week to RMB 4.5/pc this week. Meanwhile, Taiwan wafer price is generally lower than US$ 0.62/pc. The price quotes of wafers are getting lower every week.
PV cells have experienced the steepest price decline across the PV supply chain, as most PV cell vendors sold their products below costs and will loss more if they produce more. Mono-si PV cells is seeing few orders for September. In addition, the average utilization rates for Taiwanese PV cell vendors are lower than 50% and average price was below US$0.25/W. As the demand remains weak while inventory keeps rising, it is more difficult for cell price to reach real bottom in September.
In contrast with standard PV cells, inquiries on mono- and multi-si PERC cells have been climbing because China’s Top Runner Program requires PV developers to use high efficiency cells. The volume and efficiency performance of PERC cells made in Taiwan is second to none. However, their prices are still prone to being impacted by the price decline of standard PV cells. Currently, the prices of mainstream mono-si PERC cells with 20.8% efficiency rate have already fallen to US$ 0.28/W, and of multi-si PERC cells to US$0.255~0.26/W.
PV modules sold domestically in China were traded in a spot price range of RMB2.95/W and RMB3.15/W, approximately US$0.39/W. The lowering quotes is driving price downturn in markets with higher average selling prices such as U.S. and Japan and presents challenges to global PV module manufacturers.
*EnergyTrend unveils quotes for mono-si PERC cells and multi-si PERC cells as circled in the figure. Please contact us to know more.
